If you wondered why Jon Tasini wasnt taken seriously as an opponnent to Hillary Clinton in the primary(other than having no money and being down 80 points on the polls), check this out, from the new york daily news, with the hat tip to the hotline.
I will make this my trademark, as im doing another 2008 forcast.
here was the last one. http://www.dailykos.com/....
below the fold will be the new forecast
Here is my analysis of the house races we need to win this fall. Details our best pickup chances this fall. It seems that our only seats that are very vulnerable are Bean's, Melancon, Marshall, Spratt's, Boswell and Strickland. The following are all Tier 1 races that we ought to pick up this november, or will be very competitive.
Here it is again. With lots of focus on the 2006 senate races and 2008 presidential primary, i figured i would take a look at the 2008 senatorial races. the reason for this is that barring a clean sweep of some longshot senatorial contests in 2006(AZ + TN for instance) we will not be taking the senate this go around. However, in 2008, we will be defending about half as many seats as the republicans, and most likely be around 52-47-1(Sanders). Here are my predictions after the flip
On intrade today, Alito(the conservative justice from NJ) shot up 28 points, making him far and away the front runner. His nickname is Scalito, which does not bode well.
Souzzi will be running against Spitzer. Souzzi is actually a corruption busting mayor, and would be a damn good governor. i could see him winning the primary, spitzer support is wide but narrow.
Vanity Fair had an essay contest about why people weren't rioting in the streets about the Iraq war, comme Vietnam. Well I decided to submit an essay, 1,497 words out of the maximum of 1500 about the topic. I figured it would be an intresting thing to talk about and it is below the flip.
Reading the frontpage, it seems people want a poll including Dean, Gore in the same poll against the contenders so here it is. Please can people recommend it so it stays high, and frontpage if possible kos or whoever has those privileges.
We cannot always be arrogant or cocky. We do not have a monopoly on what is right and what is wrong. Because the Right thinks the same thing about their positions, someone has to be wrong. And i can tell you this - no one, i mean no one, has a monopoly on the truth.
crossposted at my blog henryschleifer.blogspot.com
Senate Forcast for 2006
Daniel Akaka (D- Hawaii) - This safe is seat for the dems.
Jeff Bingaman(D- NM) - Seat is safe is he runs. Heather Wilson is being groomed to fill Domenici's seat in 2008 if she doesnt lose her next congressional race. But Bingaman may retire.
Robert Byrd(D- WV)- Only competitive is Shelley Moore Capito runs. A strong poll showing may force Byrd into retirement. He will be 89 on election day.
Maria Cantwell(D-WA) - Would only be in trouble if Rossi were to run, and he said hes out. Former CEO of Safeco is running for the Republicans
We all hear the number that 41 million americans are without health insurance and we all find it a tragedy. Yet, Democrats and Republicans differ on how we want to fix it. Republicans want to cut everyone off and continue to help out the pharm and other special intrests. We want to....i am not sure. We always hear how we have to fix health care and we bandy is about, but i never hear real solution for real americans. National Health Care isnt politically feasible but would be the best solution. But what is the best feasible solution? Lets say we were in the same position the republicans were, in control of the house the senate and the Presidency, what would we do if we had to put up a Health care proposal tommorow? The problem is, that while we bandy the figures about political pawns, we dont actually have any real solutions that I have heard mentioned along with the figures.
I am against affirmative action except for blacks whose ancestors were actually slaves. Why should hispanics get AA? Italians didnt get it. Irish didnt get it. They are no differant than any other new immigrant group, and in fact they have been in this country for a long time. They dont deserve the extra help - the only people who do are people who are in a worse postion not because of their own actions, but beacuse of others. I.e. victims of slavery. Blacks who came from Africa recently, like Obama's dad for instance, werent oppressed in the same way, and many are non-american born. So someone who was born in 1986 and came from Nigeria when they were 2, and are now in college, why should they get AA ? They werent discriminated against, their ancestors werent slaves. The problem is that 2/3 of all Black AA admits are not the children of slaves, which is a shame because that 1/3 should be the only group of people that AA applies to.
Several months ago I created a charity in New York State called, "Help Refugees Now". I came around to this through viewing my father's own experiences leaving Hungary in 1956, and his struggle to find a port of entry to emigrate through. Luckily, the U.S. was accepting all refugees from Hungary at the time because of the revolution in the streets of Budapest. He crossed landmines into Austria and made his way here with his parents with only the clothes on his and their backs. So, the webpage is http://www.helprefugeesnow.org and I would be very appreciative if you could make a donation, no matter the size. I know the site looks amateurish, but I did the best I could. I've never made a website before after all, but it's the thought that counts hopefully. Thank you for your time,
